El director del Centro de Estudios Árabes e Islámicos del Instituto de Orientalismo de la Academia de Ciencias de Rusia, doctor en ciencias Nikolai Plotnikov, respondió a preguntas sobre la situación en Siria.
10 декабря руководитель ЦНАИ ИВ РАН д.п.н Николай Плотниковв прямом эфире программы “Пятая студия” канала Россия 24 ответил на вопросы о ситуации в Сирии.
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On December 10, the Head of CSAI IOS RAS Dr. Nikolai Plotnikov was interviewed about the situation in Syria in a live broadcast of the “Fifth Studio” program of the Russia-24 TV channel.
N. Plotnikov noted that Israel’s large-scale attacks on Syrian soil are linked to its fears that weapons belonging to the Syrian government army could fall into the hands of Islamists. More than 300 targets have been hit by Israeli airstrikes over the past two days. At the same time, a clash between Israel and Turkey on Syrian territory is unlikely.
There are currently two options for Syria: either the opposition comes to an agreement among themselves and creates a federal state, or the country is split, similar to Libya.
The Turkish-controlled opposition is pushing eastward along the border to create a buffer zone. Most likely, Ankara will occupy the north of Syria and begin to reform it according to Turkish standards, following the example of the “Al-Bab – Azaz – Jarabulus” triangle. The offensive is mainly in Kurdish territory; pro-Turkish forces have already taken the towns of Tell Rifaat and Manbij, where ethnic cleansing has begun. There is a struggle for territory and resources.
The new authorities will face serious problems in meeting the needs of the population. The leader of the terrorist organization Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has already been proclaimed emir. Recent changes in his image are linked to Julani’s ambitions and possible preparation for leadership positions.
Attempts to remove HTS from the list of terrorist organizations continue. UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen said in an interview that HTS is a respected organization in Syria, but in order to be invited to a future conference on the Syrian settlement, HTS must first be removed from the list of terrorist groups. Similar views have been expressed in the US and the UK.
European countries have stopped accepting Syrian refugees, and Turkey has announced its readiness to send back the Syrians currently on its territory. The possible return of refugees to a devastated Syria could lead to another social explosion in the country.
To date, about 1 million people have been displaced in Syria since the events of November 27. The country is in a deplorable state and the rapid lifting of Western sanctions imposed on the country is unlikely.
